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Marco Fine

Crazy consistency in the number of monthly downloads

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Just to share this observation:

in the past four months my monthly downloads have remained virtually the same, in spite of an increasing of my portfolio size by several hundreds images in the meantime ... how many were the odds?

Moreover: July downloads were quite low until three days ago (something I had complained about in the specific topic), remaining at that rate I would have remained around 50, then in the last three days I suddenly received an average of 8 downloads a day that brought me back again to the magical number of 76... I could not believe it 😃

I do not believe in the "conspiracy" theories, but this is something that has left me speechless

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Whoever wants to provide the laws of chance should play backgammon. 
Basically a stratigic game with the consideration of probabilities and improbabilities. 
I think many will be amazed how probable the improbable is and what incredible capers chance beats. 

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Guys, I know that downloads number is "not equal to" monthly earnings, and in fact my earnings were quite different month by month depending on the various types of downloads.

But anyway, I was surprised by this stability in the number, despite my continuous contribution to the size of my portfolio in these months

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Hello Marco Fine,

Sorry to burst the conspiracy bubble.

The discrepancy is just not significant enough to call it crazy in term of consistency.

If you add a couple more digits prior to your monthly download number. Eg:

July   1276

June  1276

May   1274

April   1276 

Then i will think that maybe a little too consistent. 

Anyway, i hope you will break that pattern for better this month onwards! 👍

 

 

 

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That is quite a coincidence to be the same so often month on month.

I've just completed my first month here and had 10 downloads from a gradual upload of just over 300 images over the past 4 weeks.
I hope I don't spend the next 3 or 4 months uploading hundreds/thousands more only to achieve 10 downloads every month haha.... we'll see.

Be interesting to see if you get 76 for the 5th time in 4 months this month!

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3 minutes ago, chyworks said:

Hello Marco Fine,

Sorry to burst the conspiracy bubble.

The discrepancy is just not significant enough to call it crazy in term of consistency.

If you add a couple more digits prior to your monthly download number. Eg:

July   1276

June  1276

May   1274

April   1276 

Then i will think that maybe a little too consistent. 

Anyway, i hope you will break that pattern for better this month onwards! 👍

 

 

 

Thank you!

As I said... no conspiracy theories.

Just a weird observation, and I must admit, a bit frustrating, given that in the last 4 months I uploaded maybe 500 new pictures... just to see again the magical "76" number 😁

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18 minutes ago, chyworks said:

Hello Marco Fine,

Sorry to burst the conspiracy bubble.

The discrepancy is just not significant enough to call it crazy in term of consistency.

If you add a couple more digits prior to your monthly download number. Eg:

July   1276

June  1276

May   1274

April   1276 

Then i will think that maybe a little too consistent. 

Anyway, i hope you will break that pattern for better this month onwards! 👍

 

 

 

My statistic also only varies by about 10 percent (excluding December). It looks like we're being granted a certain contingent after having reached a certain level.

Impressing stats by the way, Chy! 1,2 DLs per image monthly is brilliant! Congratulations to this great performance!

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1 minute ago, Wilm Ihlenfeld said:

My statistic also only varies by about 10 percent (excluding December). It looks like we're being granted a certain contingent after having reached a certain level.

Impressing stats by the way, Chy! 1,2 DLs per image monthly is brilliant! Congratulations to this great performance!

Thanks but my bad not making it clearer, Wilm.

That's just a set of hypothetical download numbers. certainly not mine.

The difference in my monthly downloads would not be separated by a single digit, usually it's a double digits sometimes a triple.

In term of month to month earnings, it's a closer call. 👦

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With a sufficiently large portfolio you'd expect some consistency in terms of numbers from month to month.  Although not directly linked there is a casual relationship between number of images available for sale and actual sales.

I think a lot of the issue with people going "Sales have crashed", "worst day ever" etc are mainly from people with portfolio sizes so small that they're statistically insignificant when you run the numbers.

The difference between 4 and 8 sales a day is a doubling of sales on numbers that small....But its only an increase of 4 in reality which is lost in the noise.  Ultimately with a handful of sales per day or a few dollars sales a month don't have numbers big enough to see any actual trends or stability.  One or 2 extra or fewer sales will cause them to "see" a change in performance whereas in reality thats just random fluctuations.  By the time the portfolio size gets large enough those random fluctuations are smoothed out and consistency begins to appear.

With the OPs portfolio size here of a few thousand images though its probably large enough to start seeing that casual link come into effect so you'd expect similar figures each month on average.

I just looked at my stats and actual download numbers are within 10-15% of each other every single month (other than when i bulk add images a few times a year).  Earnings varied more due to licenses but numbers are fairly consistent.  Other MS sites also show similar consistency.

 

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2 minutes ago, Richard Whitcombe said:

With a sufficiently large portfolio you'd expect some consistency in terms of numbers from month to month.  Although not directly linked there is a casual relationship between number of images available for sale and actual sales.

I think a lot of the issue with people going "Sales have crashed", "worst day ever" etc are mainly from people with portfolio sizes so small that they're statistically insignificant when you run the numbers.

The difference between 4 and 8 sales a day is a doubling of sales on numbers that small....But its only an increase of 4 in reality which is lost in the noise.  Ultimately with a handful of sales per day or a few dollars sales a month don't have numbers big enough to see any actual trends or stability.  One or 2 extra or fewer sales will cause them to "see" a change in performance whereas in reality thats just random fluctuations.  By the time the portfolio size gets large enough those random fluctuations are smoothed out and consistency begins to appear.

With the OPs portfolio size here of a few thousand images though its probably large enough to start seeing that casual link come into effect so you'd expect similar figures each month on average.

I just looked at my stats and actual download numbers are within 10-15% of each other every single month (other than when i bulk add images a few times a year).  Earnings varied more due to licenses but numbers are fairly consistent.  Other MS sites also show similar consistency.

 

Interesting...  to me... often, I have seen little direct correlation between the size of one's portfolio to the number of downloads it gets. 😅

 

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39 minutes ago, chyworks said:

Interesting...  to me... often, I have seen little direct correlation between the size of one's portfolio to the number of downloads it gets. 😅

 

Between people no as type, category and quality of images comes into play.

But for an individual assuming they're shooting roughly the same things, same ratios, same quality there is.

Years ago when SS had strict QC and rules on similars there was a fairly direct link between port size and earnings even between contributors but that isnt the case now.

 

Edited by Richard Whitcombe
Because i cant type. Or spell.

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26 minutes ago, Richard Whitcombe said:

Between people no as type, category and quality of images comes into play.

But for an individual assuming they're shooting roughly the same things, same ratios, same quality there is.

Years ago when SS had strict QC and rules on similars there was a fairly directly link between port size and earnings even between contributors but that isnt the case now.

 

The most intelligent words I've seen here in a very long time.

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1 hour ago, chyworks said:

Thanks but my bad not making it clearer, Wilm.

That's just a set of hypothetical download numbers. certainly not mine.

The difference in my monthly downloads would not be separated by a single digit, usually it's a double digits sometimes a triple.

In term of month to month earnings, it's a closer call. 👦

Ah, okay, after you had written about your downloads made in 8 days a few weeks ago I thought that this could be your monthly stats. Sorry for getting this wrong.

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4 hours ago, Marco Fine said:

Guys, I know that downloads number is "not equal to" monthly earnings, and in fact my earnings were quite different month by month depending on the various types of downloads.

But anyway, I was surprised by this stability in the number, despite my continuous contribution to the size of my portfolio in these months

Right and right. Like some others, the subs are fairly stable, the OD and SOs make the difference.

You can go back to 2009 posts here and MSG and see, that across agencies, people have seen "the wall" where adding more images, doesn't increase income. Going from 1,000 to 5,000 (rounded numbers) my monthly average has stayed pretty much the same. There are all kinds of other factors, like the most important What Are The Images and Subjects.

If I add1,000 that are just like the rest of mine, same subjects, I wouldn't expect that I'd get more sales, as there's a limited demand. But if I do something completely different, I might pick up in that area. However, the bottom line comes into play. I'm adding what I do, while the competition adds 1.5 million new images a week. How do I gain, compared to that?

But to answer your initial question, if you make X$ on 1,000 images, you won't make 2X$ on 2,000 and maybe at 5,000 you will still be making X$ as before, but the sales will be spread out over more images. If you hit one of those "best sellers" that gets hundreds of downloads, then your base level will rise.

While earnings should increase with more good images, the returns are not directly proportional.

 

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5 minutes ago, HodagMedia said:

 

But to answer your initial question, if you make X$ on 1,000 images, you won't make 2X$ on 2,000 and maybe at 5,000 you will still be making X$ as before, but the sales will be spread out over more images. If you hit one of those "best sellers" that gets hundreds of downloads, then your base level will rise.

While earnings should increase with more good images, the returns are not directly proportional.

 

Actually ages ago it did used to be the case that RPI was pretty constant and 2x the images did equal 2x the earnings.

A few things were different then though, the image library was a lot smaller so less competition and therefore demand often outstripped supply.  And all the images were of a good, audited quality.

Now its not the case, every single possible topic has ruthless competition and now supply vastly outweighs demand in most areas.  And good images have to fight 100s of substandard to get noticed.

 

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This question has been discussed before. Other contributors are experiencing the same pattern. For me all my downloads strangely enough takes place in a certain time span and I find it very odd. But I know from other post's that it isn't common.

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On 8/1/2019 at 7:47 AM, Richard Whitcombe said:

Actually ages ago it did used to be the case that RPI was pretty constant and 2x the images did equal 2x the earnings.

A few things were different then though, the image library was a lot smaller so less competition and therefore demand often outstripped supply.  And all the images were of a good, audited quality.

Now its not the case, every single possible topic has ruthless competition and now supply vastly outweighs demand in most areas.  And good images have to fight 100s of substandard to get noticed.

 

Amazing you're the first person ever that found a direct correlation to number of images = earnings increase by a direct ratio. I mean it, only person ever. Unless of course you mean 10 images and 20 images? LOL Not 1,000 and then 2,000 images.

 

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On 8/1/2019 at 5:38 AM, Richard Whitcombe said:

Between people no as type, category and quality of images comes into play.

But for an individual assuming they're shooting roughly the same things, same ratios, same quality there is.

Years ago when SS had strict QC and rules on similars there was a fairly direct link between port size and earnings even between contributors but that isnt the case now.

 

I think we're talking now, not when your grandpa was doing stock with a polaroid. Consistancy for me is nothing like the people who say same earned every month. I wish mine was the same more months. SS was neverstrict on similars since I know.

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3 hours ago, HodagMedia said:

Amazing you're the first person ever that found a direct correlation to number of images = earnings increase by a direct ratio. I mean it, only person ever. Unless of course you mean 10 images and 20 images? LOL Not 1,000 and then 2,000 images.

 

Im talking about 2000 to 20,000 images.  And for a period since i joined SS until about 2-3 years ago.  It was incredibly consistent and the correlation was pretty solid.

That was before they opened the floodgates and ditched all quality control though.

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Good useful images that are in demand get downloads and bring in money.

More good useful images that are in demand get more downloads and bring in more money.

Simple as that.

The old forum clansmen perpetuated the notion that the clients are clueless and unable to find what they are searching for. Not true. Good images stand out even more when surrounded by bad ones. 

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Like I said, clients aren't stupid, they narrow the search by filtering and quickly scroll through unattractive images. Good stuff pops out. You can  easily go through 17 pages in a couple of minutes. Plus, people take their time when they spend money.

Search is far from perfect with all the noise, but it isn't  impossible to find good stuff relatively quickly.

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